This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not expect to make a trade at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer confirmed as much in a chat with reporters before tonight’s game against the Brewers.
Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye on the future. “Where we are now, I would have to say that it only goes for 2024 – unless things change next week – we probably won’t make many moves that help us this year alone.,” said the Chicago baseball leader (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers). “If the movements help us for 2025 and beyond I think we are in a very good position.”
While Hoyer opened up a little bit of a possibility that the situation could change this week, there isn’t much confusion about how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke openly about the team “bad situation” about this season. “We dug a hole just by not working properly for two months. That doesn’t affect the way I view the organization or the way I view things going forward but it definitely affects 2024,” Hoyer said.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to chase down incoming free agents. Hoyer didn’t say Chicago’s approach is to buy or sell. That leaves room for trying to acquire MLB talent under team control beyond this season. Although that’s not unprecedented (getting the Reds’ Trevor Bauer and the Mets deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not uncommon. The Cubs will need to fend off teams that are motivated to land players for a possible summer playoff run this summer and next season.
Chicago’s farm system is considered one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff a shot at making a deal for a controllable player, but the upside is that the Cubs will be moving a few shortstops. Hoyer played down any suggestion of a full-blown bankruptcy, saying it was “it won’t be an option so (there is) no point in going through the comments.” This makes it less likely that they will deal with key players under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Leading up to 2025 would put the team’s salary on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal has a $2.5MM price tag with a $10MM collective option) and the league’s most recent signing. Jorge Lopez they are the only real hires. Hendricks is playing with a salary of $16.5MM and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. Even though he’s been down quite a bit lately after a poor start to the season, the interest may be minimal. The Cubs could try to pay almost the entire contract to acquire a trade partner. Hendricks also has full non-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five with his current team) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA through 37 innings in long relief. That solid run prevention is not supported by the strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned pick, there is likely limited upside for the left-handed reliever.
Cody Bellinger he has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM of his contract. He had a good but uncharacteristic season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That would be a tough contract to move even if Bellinger is healthy, and he’s in on the injured list for the past few weeks with a broken finger.
If the Cubs wanted to get things moving in 2025, they would be in for a very quiet time. However, even if they can’t move long-term pieces, Chicago can enjoy offers for more manageable players this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox are eyeing the starter Jameson Taillon, who will make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also received interest in the third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and trees Hector Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25 years old, is under the club’s control until 2028. He will be a borderline candidate for the cut of the Super Two for negotiations before next season. The Cubs certainly aren’t under any financial pressure to move him, but they’re likely ready to move on if another team takes Morel as a habit. Morel is a great athlete with great upside who has yet to find a protective home. Chicago unsuccessfully tried him at second base and across the field last year. They gave him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping that his upside will come into play at that position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast Outs Above Average have consistently given him very low marks for his position at the hot corner.
This is also not a good time for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he is hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line Morel carried during the season. While it’s obviously not a good thing, it does stand up to some interesting events from a performance standpoint. Morel raised his walk rate by several points while significantly reducing his strikeouts. After catching more than 30% of his games for his first two seasons, he has caught 23.8% of the time this year. An uncharacteristically low .221 batting average kept that from being a good result.
While the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with a rise in batting average, his lack of defense makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs can hope to turn the third baseman into last year’s first round pick Matt Shaw just once next season. They don’t have much in the way of temporary alternatives. If the Cubs were to trade Morel, they would probably count on it Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wise to cover the situation for the whole season.
The Cubs should be open to pitching to anyone in their bullpen. Neris has worked the ninth inning since then Adbert Alzolay it’s down the arm. The offseason signee has been rocking, walking 16.1% of opponents and saving four in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s two this year because of his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing for a $9MM salary and has the same option for next year. He is now a team choice but could switch to a player if Neris gets involved in another 24 games.
Because of his instability, the Cubs are unlikely to seek Neris back at that price. They will probably be happy to find a trade partner, but the possibility of being loaded with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his mark could make other teams worried. There is little risk involved with Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% strikeout rate in 34 innings. He is making a $1.5MM salary and is under active duty until 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired by Seattle in May, he posted a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.
Whether the Cubs find enough willpower to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not completely buried in the Wild Card position, sitting 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four teams to make the jump, the front office has decided that they are the ones who can take the longest to make the postseason. How willing they are to reorganize the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the big questions next week.
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